29 July 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Monster First Delivery Day For August Gold

Nova Scotia offered up 406,700 ounces of gold from their house account for the first delivery day in August.  That is the biggest number I have seen in some time.

And they sold it at what was close to the low for yesterday at $1,332.  That's what one gets when they sell big in an active month which August is for gold.  What were they thinking?

The silver deliveries were fairly inconsequential for August, so I did not bother to update them.

Uncle Buck, aka la douleur du monde, took the gas pipe on that horrible GDP number, at 1.2% versus 2.6% expected, with a downward revision to 0.8% in the prior period.   No wonder the Fed balked at even a fairly symbolic rate increase this week.  They may play dumb, but they know.

Gold is on the threshold of breaking out as you can see on the chart below, and silver is looking fairly positive as well.

But, and isn't there always a but these days, next week will be the July Non-Farm Payrolls Report. as indicated in the preview of next week's economic news below.

So let's see how the precious metals sort their way through that next hurdle on their way higher.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Le Père Jacques Hamel, un martyr de la Foi, 26 Juillet 2016
At 85,  Rev. Jacques Hamel was well past retirement age.

But he kept in shape and kept on going — baptizing infants, celebrating Mass, and tending to the parishioners of St.-Étienne-du-Rouvray, a working-class town in Normandy where he had spent much of his life.

Father Hamel’s throat was cut, while he was offering the sacrifice of the Mass, by a young man claiming allegiance to the Islamic State.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Hanging On

The Q2 GDP number sucked out loud this morning, coming in at 1.2% as compared to the economic consensus of 2.6%.  And the prior period was adjusted lower to a slim 0.8% from 1.1%.  And the Atlanta Fed slashed their going forward GDP forecast.

Well, Hillary has been nominated now to carry on Barry O's legacy of stagnation for the many, so it's mission accomplished, and time for the economic carnies to pull up their statistical stakes and move on.

Now we know why the Fed balked at a largely symbolic 25 basis point yesterday;  today's GDP number would have made them look like idiots.

But they did say they saw clear signs of growth, so maybe they are still following their normal course of seeing the world through one percent eyes.

VIX took a decline today, and stocks are looking very fully valued, with leadership continuing to narrow.    Time to start trimming stock positions from the longs, perhaps, because any exogenous event could make for a fairly stiff reversal.  But those are very tough to predict.

Have a pleasant weekend.

28 July 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Helicopter Money - Hope and Change

"History is made up of the bad actions of extraordinary men and woman. All the most noted destroyers and deceivers of our species, all the founders of arbitrary governments and false religions have been extraordinary people; and nine tenths of the calamities that have befallen the human race had no other origin than the union of high intelligence with low desires."

Thomas Babington Macaulay

"This was a night dominated by the hollow men of the Democratic Party: Panetta, Kaine, Biden and Obama. Men who knew better, but did worse. Barack Obama possesses so many scintillating skills, perhaps more skills than any other political figure of the modern era. Yet he put those magical gifts to such meagre, timid and often brutal uses. What a waste. His is the tragedy of a squandered presidency."

Jeffrey St Clair, Notes From the Democratic Convention 2016

Gold and silver mostly marked time today, giving back a little of the bigger gains from yesterday's post FOMC rally.

The Bank of Japan is said to be announcing something vis a vis 'helicopter money' overnight.

The metals need to breakout on the charts.

The Comex seems to be stocking up on gold, as if to try and isolate themselves from supply shocks overseas perhaps?

There were few deliveries worth noting yesterday, and the data for the day before never really came out.

I have included the warehouse inventories although there is not all that much change there.

August may be an interesting contract month for the precious metals.

Day Three of the Democratic Convention was just peachy.

I hope few of you have any illusions about the integrity of the political party system given all that we have seen.

Well, let's see how it all goes.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Rally Narrows Sharply To a Few Big Tech Names

It's mostly about Big Tech 'story stocks' like Facebook, Alphabet, and Amazon now.

The broader market seems sluggish, as if it is running out of gas.

This difference shows up most sharply in comparing the SP 500 and the Industrials against the Nas 100.

The Bank of Japan may do something worth watching overnight.

Let's see how the bulls can take it into the weekend.

Have a pleasant evening.

27 July 2016

Thomas Frank Explains Why Hillary May Talk Reform, But Will Never Be a Reformer

"The hypocrite's crime is that he bears false witness against himself. What makes it so plausible to assume that hypocrisy is the vice of vices is that integrity can indeed exist under the cover of all other vices except this one. Only crime and the criminal, it is true, confront us with the perplexity of radical evil; but only the hypocrite is really rotten to the core."

Hannah Arendt

"Those who are able to climb up the ladder will find ways to pull it up after them, or selectively lower it down to allow their friends, allies, and kin to scramble up. In other words: 'who says meritocracy says oligarchy.'"

Chris Hayes

The DNC is an arm of the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party.

Hillary is a neo-liberal on economics, and a neo-con on foreign policy.

She and her crowd are masters of spin and the management of popular perception.

I think Frank and Scheer are being far too kind.

The politicians and bankers know exactly what they are doing.

They are not deluded, or simply mistaken; they simply do not care.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - So Far So Good

Gold and silver caught some legs to the upside today after the Fed did nothing.

The markets suspect that the Bank of Japan will be announcing something that sounds like 'helicopter money' on Friday, which will continue to boost the global liquidity depending on what they do.

Another day or two of upside for the metals and we may be getting that 'up, up, and away' action that we discussed last week.

We have an intermediate inverse head and shoulders working, and if it breaks out it signals 1450 as a minimum objective, against the cup and handle longer term target of 1490.

Silver is just a beast, explosive to the upside.

It turns out that the DNC had been warned some time ago that their servers were vulnerable to hacking, and they chose to do nothing about it.   I suppose that is consistent with Hillary's Luddite approach to tech security for her own State Department emails.

Let's see if gold and silver can hold on to these gains and add enough to stick a close in the breakout territory that lasts.

Have a pleasant evening.