28 October 2016

Just Charts Into the Weekend - FOMC and Non-Farm Payrolls Next Week

I consider today's GDP number a particularly generous pre-election pump for Hillary.

The New York Fed's 4Q estimated is 1.4%.

Next week is the FOMC rate decision and on Friday the October Non-Farm Payrolls.

The delivery reports were quiet, with Macquare disgorging another chunk of their gold long position.

Someone took another 450,000+ ounces of gold out of Brink's Hong Kong.

Have a pleasant weekend.

David Malone On Money Laundering, Globalisation, The Media

I have some business to which I must attend, so I will be giving myself the day off.  I'll be back tomorrow.

In the meanwhile, here is a short video on a range of interesting topics from David Malone.  As you may know, David is an acquaintance and a friend of Le Cafe, and the author of the blog GolemXIV.

and as an added attraction, David Malone on the TTIP and the Death of Democracy

27 October 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Capped Again at 1270 - Election Speculation

Gold and silver managed to move higher despite the stronger dollar, with gold showing a little more strength.

With the VIX also climbing, this looked like a flight to safety of some modest proportion.

Gold is obviously caught in a short term trend. Silver as well, although it is not as easy to see this on the weekly chart.

Over 800,000 ounces of gold have been taken off the Brink's accounts in Hong Kong over the past two days. Perhaps not significant in the bigger picture of things. But still worth noting if such a trend to take physical out of the 'Comex warehouses' there and not replace it.

Quite a few traders are busying themselves by trying to figure out with way assets will move if Trump or Hillary win the election.

I am giving it some thought myself, but for now the only people making money in doing this are those who sell their opinions in one way or another.

Right now I can argue it both ways. And personally I find both candidates to be so distasteful that it is hard to even imagine that they could become the 'leader of the free world.'

Regardless, I think it might be wise to hang on to your wallets, unless you are among the self-chosen elite who seem to have shanghaied the American political system.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Reports - Big Profits in 'Finance,' Not So Much In Real Things

Stocks were weak most of the day driven by lackluster earnings and the quality of those earnings calculations.

The markets were cheered during the day when a story broke that a small group of traders in interest rate derivatives was able to score a cool $300 million profit for the quarter.

Of course that spectacular amount was not obtain from 'prop trading' which the Banks have been told to exit, but from just 'serving their customers' and holding 'certain positions for inventory.'

Yeah, right. Well, I am sure the NY Fed has their back, or something like that.

After the bell Amazon laid an earnings egg, and tech stocks moved lower in the futures markets. The stock was down a bit over six percent.

Alphabet, a part of the behemoth formerly known as Google, turned in what looked like a positive report but the stock was largely unchanged as the markets went seeking a Rosetta Stone to try and interpret Alpha's hieroglyphics accounting numbers.

And a pleasant is guaranteed, for just a few.

Have a pleasant evening.

26 October 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Option Expiration for November - The God of the Market

"Since the earliest stages of human history, of course, there have been bazaars, rialtos, and trading posts—all markets. But The Market was never God, because there were other centers of value and meaning, other "gods." The Market operated within a plethora of other institutions that restrained it. As Karl Polanyi has demonstrated in his classic work The Great Transformation, only in the past two centuries has The Market risen above these demigods and chthonic spirits to become today's First Cause...

Does anyone doubt that if the True Cross were ever really discovered, it would eventually find its way to Sotheby's? The Market is not omnipotent—yet. But the process is under way and it is gaining momentum."

Harvey Cox, The Market As God: Living In the New Dispensation

Today was the Comex option expiration for November futures for both gold and silver.

Since November is not an active month for either metal it did not impact the prices significantly.

December is the next big month for both precious metals that I track.

The dollar index was off a little bit in forex trading, and stocks were a bit wobbly.

The data continues to confirm that The Recovery is a thin facade over misgovernance and the mispricing of risk due to a pernicious corruption of the balances in the system.

People have been asking me how I think one candidate or another might be for gold and silver.

I am not sure I can frame a good answer for that, because there are so many variables besides a particular candidate.  I can make a decent case either way.

Personally I have been thinking a bit harder about how each candidate might react to opposition since the electorate is so clearly polarized, and both candidates have historically high disapproval ratings.

It is, after all, 'the choice between two evils' whether one is lesser or not, as the media likes to say.

And I hate to say it, but despite the trappings of religion or supremely benevolent ideology in which some of our new evils like to cloak themselves, it does seem in practice to be more of a form of self worship, a kind of neo-Paganism, than any acknowledgement of a higher morality and sense of obligation to a greater power than our own selves.

But as you know, my 'model' of the Imperial Presidency is expecting a type of a Nero to appear on the seen, marked by growing excess and over-reactions to even perceived resistance in pursuit of their own goals.

In our parlance, that would be someone Nixonian to a fault, or at least I would hope it would not be much more than that. Perhaps bolder and more shameless.

Again, either one of the front runners may step up, or rather down, to meet and exceed that mark.  I would hope not, but I do believe the possibility is there.

This is not to say that I am trafficking in eschatology.  I think that is mostly prideful and distracting, and we have certainly been through times like this here before.  We just forget about them.  We think that we are somehow different, exceptional, and more put upon than our parents and grandparents.

Like gold and silver, goodness is precious because of its relative scarcity. And these days it does seem to be particularly hard to find.  The economist Pierre Rinfret told me that a few months before he passed away, as he reflected on his life and experience in politics.

But goodness is not constrained by nature, but rather by the toxic drought of our hardened hearts.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - VIX Rising, Wobbly Earnings Results

The data coming in for the most part seems to be confirming the idea that consumers are on the skids, and that corporate profits that depend on a healthy aggregate public demand are feeling the pinch.

Monopolies like big finance and healthcare, and firms that depend on special situations, like war for example, may be showing more resilience in this odd economy which we have grown over the years.

Everyone seems to be thinking about what the upcoming elections may mean to equities, what the central banks may do for the stock markets, and what additional military conflicts the neo-cons may provide.

But do you see that in each case, the focus is not on a healthy economy with organic growth through productive end.

This will not end well. But no one will do anything to stop it until after the fact.   This seems to be the 'MO' of the ruling elites and their porcine constituents.

Have a pleasant evening.